The lads have had a week off which is good for two reasons, a prolonged rest and a chance to reflect on what’s gone wrong. Last Sunday we witnessed a spirited performance, but not enough to beat Manchester City. After City’s win in the week, they’re now top. We share the same goal difference, but they’ve scored more across the season. Attention will now have to turn to Newcastle, so let’s see what they have on offer for us.

Form

As things stand, Newcastle sit 14th. For Eddie Howe, this is awful. However, due to how compact the league is, European football is not out of the question. For arguments sake, the top seven teams in the division will claim the European spots. The top five are pretty much confirmed, it’s just where they all end up. That leaves two spots. One for the Europa League and the other for the Conference League. Currently, it’s Brighton and Bournemouth that occupy those slots. Newcastle are seven points behind Bournemouth and eight points adrift of Brighton. With five games left in the season, it’s still on the table to earn a spot amongst the top bracket of European teams. This season, the Geordie’s have won 12 games, drawn six and lost 15. That’s an average of 1.3 points a game, the lowest since Eddie Howe arrived. In total they’ve scored 46 times and conceded 49, a very average set of figures in comparison to the rest of the league. They’ve struggled home and way this campaign, but I’m only interested in how they’ve fared outside of St James Park. They have the fifth worst away form in the table, winning just four times. They’ve lost eight which means that only three teams have lost more.

In terms of more recent form, they’re actually on a run of three defeats in a row. Losing 2-1 to Bournemouth last weekend being the most up to date result that we have. However, prior to those defeats they actually picked up two big wins. Chelsea and Manchester United were both beaten by Newcastle, which gave the fans false hope in the end. If we include all competitions, then it’s actually four losses in a row as they were thumped 7-2 by Barcelona, in the Champions League, a few weeks ago. Before reaching the last 16, Newcastle actually had quite a good league phase. They finished 12th overall, meaning they were required to face a knockout game to reach the last 16. They even held PSG to a 1-1 draw, at PSG. They then blitzed Qarabag in the last 16 qualifier, winning 9-3 overall. When they earned a 1-1 draw against Barcelona, in the first leg, it felt like perhaps the Champions League would be the competition they shine in. However, the second leg saw the Spanish giants win 7-2, as mentioned above. With all those results in mind, it’s actually one win in seven for the Magpies.

Now let’s take a look at the xG. They’ve created 49.5 xG, which puts them in the top half for goal creation. At the other end they’ve conceded 45.4 xGA which again places them in the top half. However, the combination of the two means that they should be sitting 11th in the league, which shows they should be three places better off. They should also be sitting with 48 points instead of 42. So, while Newcastle have been poor by their own standards, they’ll feel slightly hard done by. They’re outperforming the current position they’re in.

Absences

Eddie Howe has confirmed that two of his star players will miss this tie. Anthony Gordon and Tino Livramento are both sidelined with injuries. In addition to them, Joelinton will miss the fixture due to suspension. Then Emil Krafth and Fabian Schar will be absent with injury as well. Bruno Guimaraes returned to action last weekend, so he’ll likely be backing to a starting role following his two months out.

Player to Watch: William Osula

It’s hard to work out who Newcastle will opt for as the one to lead the line, but Osula has started Newcastle’s last two games. He scored on both occasions, so it would feel like he’s earned a right to start here, ahead of Nick Woltemade and Yoane Wissa. The Danish international hasn’t been allowed to fully flourish this season, but he certainly packs a punch whenever he plays. He has 7 goals/assists in 30 games, which doesn’t sound like a lot, but he’s only played 455 minutes in the Premier League. That’s across 19 appearances as well. I do feel as though if he was given more time then his figures would be much better. However, there’s a seriously talented player in there. It’s no surprise that some of his ‘per 90’ statistics are one of best in the team. He has a similar playing style to Alexander Isak. That tall, thin frame that seems to be able adapt to any situation. He has speed, skill and intelligence. Everything he does has a purpose behind it and it usually benefits his team. I worry that Gabriel might have a difficult evening trying to contain him.

Newcastle Predicted Lineup

Eddie Howe has a few options to tinker with, but this feels the most likely. With Livramento and Gordon both absent, it’ll require some shuffling around I think. Harvey Barnes feels like the natural replacement for Gordon. However, right back feels slightly more difficult to guess. They have the experience in Kieran Trippier, but Lewis Miley is more than competent to cover. With Guimaraes back, there’s one less space for Miley in midfield and you might as well use him in a position that he can cover. Jacob Ramsey will then deputise Joelinton. I feel as though Osula will start, but Woltemade or Wissa could easily drop in. Anthony Elanga feels like the right option, but Jacob Murphy is also there. Eddie Howe seems to have found his centre back partnership in Sven Botman and Malick Thiaw, which means potentially no room for Dan Burn. However, Burn does normally have a good game against us, which could see Newcastle deploy a back five instead of their regular 4-3-3. Lewis Hall feels like a guarantee. Then it’s whether Howe opts for Nick Pope or Aaron Ramsdale. He’s been opting for the latter recently, which could make for an interesting reception. I feel like Ramsdale was loved by the fans, even in his wild moments.

Arsenal Predicted Lineup

It seems as though Bukayo Saka and Riccardo Calafiori could make the squad for the match, but I can’t see either starting. It’ll likely end up being a late game substitution. I think we played pretty well against City and this is the starting XI from that fixture. If it was up to me, I would move Eberechi Eze into midfield, alongside Martin Odegaard, and shift Declan Rice to the base. We have two defensive minded full backs, which can cover up the flanks. They’ll have a lot of energy in midfield and we need to combat that with slick, intricate football. You could easily chuck Max Dowman in this one, but I fear he won’t have the best impact against Newcastle’s quite brutal approach. Noni Madueke, as much as I have reservations about his quality, does have the physicality needed. Of course we still have Viktor Gyokeres, Leandro Trossard, Gabriel Martinelli and Gabriel Jesus from the bench. So, if we want to switch things up we can.

Predicted Result: Arsenal 2-0 Newcastle

Firstly, we need to make sure we win the match. If that’s with a 97th minute penalty then so be it. Yes, we need to move the dial on our goal difference, but we can’t sacrifice winning matches. Position ourselves to secure the three points, then try and hunt for more goals. As mentioned earlier, this will be a midfield battle. I don’t think Newcastle’s forwards are that high in quality, outside of Osula. Barnes and Elanga have moments, but they’re not game-changers. The real quality falls to the likes of Sandro Tonali, Guimaraes, Hall, Miley, Thiaw and Botman. If we can overpower the midfield then we’ll win this game. The lads have had a week off and that means any little niggles will have been shaken off with it. Using Odegaard, Eze and Havertz in the same team worked against City. That should be our blueprint now. Reintegrate Saka, Calafiori and Jurrien Timber as soon as possible. Watch us explode into life. Let’s get it!