Will Arsenal cruise to victory or will Manchester United prove a tough nut to crack?

Arsenal had an excellent midweek adventure in Italy. They rocked up to Inter Milan, who have been the best Italian side this season, and beat them 3-1. Arsenal didn’t even field the likes of Gabriel, Declan Rice, Ben White and Martin Odegaard. It was an excellent performance that will have certainly boosted morale. This came after a disappointing 0-0 draw against Nottingham Forest last weekend. It left them seven points clear at the top of the Premier League, but, Manchester City have since won their game this weekend and have cut the deficit to just four points. It’s now up to Arsenal to regain that lead.

Form

Manchester United’s most recent endeavour saw them comfortably beat Manchester City, their bitter rivals. It was 2-0 on the day, but the reality saw the Red Devils put the ball into the net five times. Three disallowed goals. City were well beaten and that’s a worrying prospect for the Gunners. This was Michael Carrick’s first game in charge, prior to this winning start was a different story. The game before the City win saw United crash out of the FA Cup after losing 2-1 to Brighton. In the Premier League, United had experienced three draws in a row. Wolves, Leeds and Burnley all held them to score draws. Form has been very patchy for Carrick’s side, but this was Ruben Amorim’s team during this spell. Since November 1st, United have only won three league games. That’s 12 games and just three wins, which is actually pretty poor. That run includes seven draws and two defeats. So, there’s two sides to this coin. It shows that United are hard to beat, but struggle to get it over the line.

United sit 5th in the league, but a team sitting in 11th can equal their points tally right now. The league is volatile and it’s constantly on the move, so some teams are in favourable positions at the moment due to this. United perhaps feel like they should be higher in the table and the underlying statistics back that up. When looking at the xG, the Manchester side look impressive. In terms of xG created, they sit on 40.6 which is the 2nd highest in the division. It’s higher than Arsenal who sit on 39.3. What lets United down, compared to Arsenal, is the xG they concede. They currently sit on 27.4 xGA, compared to Arsenal on 15.6 xGA. In total, Carrick’s side sit third in the table on xG combined. What this means is that United should be three points better off and only nine points behind Arsenal, not the 15 it currently is.

Looking at the away form of United shows that they do struggle when they’re not playing at Old Trafford. They’ve won just three games on the road, dropping points in eight games. They’ve scored 18 goals, which is reasonable, but the goals conceded is the problem. They’ve conceded 19, only six have conceded more. Brighton and West Ham each have 19 too. The last time the Red Devils won outside of Manchester was against Wolves on the 8th December.

Injuries

Manchester United have effectively a clean slate in terms of injuries. The only concerns are the injuries to Matthijs De Light and Joshua Zirkzee. Everyone else is fit and firing and have welcomed back Bryan Mbuemo, Amad Diallo and Noussair Mazraoui.

Arsenal have near enough a full roster to choose from as well. Riccardo Calafiori is a doubt, but has returned to training. It’s a similar story with Piero Hincapie, but it’s likely he’ll make the squad. The only definite absentee is Max Dowman. Arsenal need entire squad availability for the rest of the campaign. Kai Havertz will have a slow reintegration into the side, his minutes on the pitch will be handled carefully, so there’s a chance of exclusion from the squad to allow for Hincapie/Calafiori to return.

Player To Watch: Amad Diallo

As much as I could choose someone like Bruno Fernandes, Bryan Mbuemo or Matheus Cunha, Diallo terrifies me. He’s extremely quick with the ball at his feet and our left back needs to be focused. I don’t want to see Myles Lewis-Skelly for this reason. He only has 4 goals/assists for United this season, in 16 games, but he offers more than just goals and assists. He’s the kind of player that can turn a game on its head and will play an important role for Carrick going forward.

Manchester United Predicted Lineup

Following Amorim’s departure, United have reverted to a back four. They played a back four against Manchester City and look set to continue with that trend. It seems like United will attempt to press us high and maintain possession if they do win it high. Like what Liverpool were able to do to us at the Emirates. However, the players will still be adapting to the new system and it may take time. Even though they beat City last weekend. Cunha will likely come in just behind Mbuemo with Amad and Shaw keeping the width. Fernandes will be the creative pulse, so Zubimendi will have a task on his hands to keep him quiet. Casemiro will attempt to recycle possession with Mainoo the one to drive through the middle.

Arsenal Predicted Lineup

There’s not a definite chance that Hincapie makes the squad, but he’s in training and I do think we’ll see him included. I think he should start if he is available, if not then we’ll have to stick with Ben White and Jurrien Timber in the full back roles. We need our best defensive talents on the pitch, Timber and Hincapie are those players. Having said that, it’ll be nice to have White’s attacking prowess. Everyone else picks themselves really, however, I would like to see Mikel Merino ahead of Martin Odegaard. Odegaard hasn’t done enough to warrant a start, compared to Merino who’s been fantastic of late. He might be slow, but his intelligence and game IQ is off the charts. He’s also a physical presence and will win aerial duels, offering support to Viktor Gyokeres.

Predicted Result: Arsenal 3-1 United

I do think United will score a goal as they are impressive going forward. They have three players that can score goals out of nothing and are supported by Fernandes who will attempt every pass under the sun. At some point I do believe they’ll crack our defensive unit, but they’ll sacrifice defensive solidity in the process and I think we’ll take advantage. Arsenal are an incredible unit from the front to the back, but have struggled to take advantage of certain matches that have given them the opportunity to win. As always, we need to be clinical and try and score early. If we can get an early goal then we can relax. This team is different and I need to remember that, but my head always thinks the worst. Hidden behind that 3-1 prediction is the overwhelming fear of losing 1-0 or drawing 0-0. But, let’s get it!