Will the Gunners end their winless run or will Leeds throw more spanners in the works.

Arsenal almost stuttered against the worst side in the Champions League, but managed to win 3-2. This meant they won all eight games in the league and finished top. They also scored the most goals and conceded the least. I will say the first half of the Kairat Almaty game was as I expected. A lot of big chances created and goals scored, the second half had a different flow. A rather disappointing flow. But, the league phase is finished and now we wait for the knockout stage. In the meantime, Arsenal have some work to do to get back on track in the Premier League. Three games without a win and a defeat against Manchester United has left a sour taste in the mouth. Leeds are up next and it’s away at Elland Road, a notoriously difficult ground to visit.

Form

Leeds have had a very good couple of months. December and January has been quite kind to them. They’ve lost just once since Manchester City beat them 3-2 at the end of November. That’s 10 games and just one loss, that’s very good form. Considering this was a team battling in the relegation zone not too long ago, they’ll take any and all points they can get and that’s what they’ve been so good at doing. They’ve picked up six draws within those 10 games which proves that they’ve become hard to beat. They’ve faced Liverpool twice, Chelsea and Manchester United. Plus difficult trips to Sunderland and Brentford. The most recent result was a 1-1 draw away at Everton, which they actually deserved to win.

They still sit 16th in the league, but it’s not an accurate representation of how good they actually are right now. The xG table gives us a more expansive look on how well they’re playing. From the chances they’re creating and conceding, they should be 10th in the league on 34 points. That’s 8 points better off than what they are now. They’ve created 33.3 xG which is the 3rd best out of the bottom 10 teams. So, they can certainly create chances.

Leeds have the 12th best home record in the league, losing just twice at Elland Road, winning five. That puts them on par with Brighton and Chelsea. Within those 10 games mentioned earlier, all three of the wins have come at home.

Injuries

Leeds haven’t got a bad injury list at all as they’re missing just four players. Dan James, Gabriel Gudmundsson, Jaka Bijol and Lukas Nmecha will be absent for the game tomorrow. Gudmundsson is the main starting left back for Leeds, so he’ll be a miss. Nmecha is the 2nd highest scorer in the squad, Bijol is the 11th most used player and James provides that speed from the bench. Each of them will be missed.

Arsenal’s only injury concern is Max Dowman, who is a 16 year old. Arsenal have a clean slate for injuries, which will mean a few players will miss out on the match day squad. The likelihood is that it’ll be Christian Norgaard, Myles Lewis-Skelly, Gabriel Jesus and possibly Noni Madueke. These will likely be back in the squad for the Chelsea game in the EFL Cup.

Player to Watch: Anton Stach

The obvious one is Dominic Calvert-Lewin, who is Leeds’ top scorer, but Stach has been just as important. He’s statistically the best player in the squad with a FotMob rating of 7.29, the next highest being Ethan Ampadu on 7.16. He’s also got the most assists with three. Stach also blows everyone else out of the water for chance creation. He has 43 chances created, the next highest is 22. He leads the press and creates the chances, he’s my player to watch.

Leeds Predicted Lineup

Leeds set up in a style that you’ll likely see in Italian football, they love a three-at-the-back system of football. Like we saw against Inter Milan, the wing backs will provide all the width and will just hug the touchline. However, with how Arsenal setup, it’ll force Leeds to set up in more a 5-4-1. Stach will likely slip further back to create a three man midfield with Aaronson just a bit higher to help with transitions. Calvert-Lewin will be on hand as the target man. Leeds do also have some potentially troublesome players on the bench; Ao Tanaka, Facundo Buonanotte, Noah Okafor and Wilfried Gnoto all have dangerous qualities that could hurt Arsenal late on if they don’t start well.

Arsenal Predicted Lineup

As mentioned in my last piece, 90% of these players had significant rest against Kairat Almaty. Only three of these players featured and two of them were taken off at half time. The rest have had a week to rest, reenergise and go again. Even Leeds have had less time to prepare as they played Monday night. There should be no excuses with this lot. I think this is our strongest team on paper, even if I would like Eberechi Eze somewhere in here. I do think Arteta wants Kai Havertz to feature somewhere along the line, hopefully he can start following his impressive outing against Kairat.

Predicted Result: Leeds 0-1 Arsenal

Arsenal have shown on numerous occasions that they can contain sides very well. I’d argue that Nottingham Forest have better personnel than Leeds and they hardly threatened. It’s what we do at the other end that will be the biggest needle mover. Referencing Forest again, we didn’t take our chances there and we came away with a 0-0 draw. We need to be clinical and put this game out of sight as early as we can. That statement win has never been more needed than it is now, but I’m leaning more towards a smash-and-grab job from Arsenal. In my head I can see a scrappy goal followed by some tense moments later on in the game. I don’t care, get the three points. Let’s get it!