Arsenal were able to return to winning ways at the weekend after they beat Newcastle 1-0. Despite some focus on improving goal difference, the most important thing was to get those three points. It halted a run of two defeats in a row, in the league. Now they must return to a competition the Gunners have thrived in, on the most part. After beating Sporting Lisbon 1-0, across two legs, Atletico Madrid now stand in their way. With a Champions League final in the offering, Mikel Arteta’s men need to build momentum.

Form

Atletico Madrid are currently 4th in the La Liga. They’re five points behind 3rd placed Villarreal, but 10 points ahead of Real Betis in 5th. Champions League football is all but secured, but they’ll need to find another win to confirm it. Diego Simeone’s men have won 18 games, drawn six and lost nine. Which is a very respectable total. They’ve notched 56 goals and conceded 37, which are good totals as well. 56 places them as the fourth highest in the table, additionally, 37 puts them as the fourth lowest. However, form has been terrible in the league of late. Of the nine defeats they’ve suffered, four of them have occurred within their last five games. If it wasn’t for the 3-2 win over Athletic Club on Saturday, they would have been on a five game losing streak. Although, in each of those four defeats, they only lost by a single goal. It’s worth adding, Simeone’s men lost the Copa Del Rey final to Real Sociedad recently. This has kind of compounded the misery from the last month of domestic action.

The Spanish giants have had a different experience in Europe though. Having recently knocked out Barcelona in the quarter finals, it seems like they have the tenacity to go the distance in the Champions League. In the league phase of the European competition, Atletico finished 14th. They won four, drew one and lost three. One of those defeats did come against Arsenal as the Gunners beat them 4-0 at the Emirates. Revenge will be on the menu for that anecdote. In Atletico’s home games, throughout all the stages, they’ve scored 21 goals in just seven games. It’s a ridiculous record that demonstrates how good they are in the Riyadh Air Metropolitano. Diego Simeone’s men did face Arsenal’s North London rivals, Tottenham, in a previous round. They won 7-5 on aggregate, but did actually lose to Igor Tudor’s side in one of the legs, the only win that the interim manager won before he was sacked.

Let’s take a look at Atletico’s xG for their La Liga campaign. They’ve created 50.0 xG, which is the fourth highest in the division. In terms of xGA, they’ve only allowed 40.8. It’s the sixth lowest. The combination of the two means that the Spanish side should be sitting 5th, on just 51 points. That’s a huge nine point swing. It kind of suggests that behind the statistics, Atletico are over-performing.

Absences

Atletico did have a few injury concerns over the weekend, but they’ve seemed to resolved themselves. Julian Alvarez and Ademola Lookman carried small injuries, but they look to have recovered. This means the only absentees for Atletico will be Pablo Barrios and Jose Gimenez.

Player to Watch: Antoine Griezmann

I’m going to be able to have two bites of this cherry, so Griezmann gets in now over Julian Alvarez. Of course we know the danger that Alvarez carries, but we’ve seen repeatedly how good Griezmann is. The French forward is a legend in the football world and this will likely be his final season in Europe, as he’ll be off to America in the summer. This will be the final time Atletico fans will see Griezmann in the Champions League on home turf. If scripts exist, it feels like it’s leaning towards a fairytale ending for Griezmann. Despite being 35 years of age, he’s notched 52 appearances this season. That includes 20 goals/assists, with five of them coming in the Champions League. Those are some statistics to be proud of. He also scored in Madrid’s last game, the 3-2 win over Athletic Club. The danger of Griezmann goes beyond just surface level statistics. He’s been a pillar of the footballing community for over a decade now, helping France lift the World Cup back in 2018 as his crowning achievement. If anyone has the experience to drag his team through this competition, it’s Antoine and that’s why we need to watch out for him.

Atletico Predicted Lineup

Atletico tend to set up in a 4-4-2. They may adjust due to the opposition, but it’s unlikely they will. They like setting up with two strikers who will work hard, but will linger further up the pitch rather than track back. They’ll be ready to counter at a moments notice. The four sitting behind them will do the work and they’ll work very hard. Giuliano Simeone and Ademola Lookman will provide some width, but will opt to operate inside. That allows Nahuel Molina and Matteo Ruggeri to get forward. Marcos Llorente and Koke will likely start in midfield together. Llorente will be the engine, Koke will provide the elegance. They have alternatives, but experience will weigh heavily in this tie. They could opt for Johnny Cardoso, but I think it will be these two. In terms of the back line, the only change I could envisage is Clement Lenglet swapping out for someone else. I do feel as though they’ll opt for Jan Oblak over Juan Musso, who has been starting a fair amount this season. Atletico will work hard and will play the ‘game’. Expect a stop-start match and very few ‘clear’ chances. We may have beaten them 4-0 earlier in the season, but it’s an entirely different situation now.

I’m not changing my team from my prediction the other day. We do have Bukayo Saka and Riccardo Calafiori back, but we need to ease them back in. Eberechi Eze looks like he’ll be fit, but I can see Mikel Arteta opting for a more defensive approach. If we need that extra bit of quality, he’ll likely be available from the bench. That’s also where we need to optimise Gabriel Jesus and Gabriel Martinelli. It’s going to be a slog of a game, but this should be enough to hold out for a draw or even win this leg.

Predicted Result: Atletico 1-1 Arsenal

I’d love us to go there and win 4-0, but that is never going to happen. They’re going to look far better than they did when they came to the Emirates. They’ll make us work extremely hard for a result, but this team don’t have much left in the tank to give it another 90 minutes of high intensity. As much as they’re not the same level as the PSG side we faced last season, they have knocked out Barcelona to be here. If we can walk away with a draw then I’ll be happy and that’s what I think we’ll do. They’ll be looking to get our players in the referee’s book from the off, this is where we need to keep our focus and don’t entertain it. It’s going to be loud and every misplaced pass or touch will be jeered, so pressure will be immense. Get something here and take them back to the Emirates to knock them out, let’s get it!