Will Arsenal seize the initiative and create a bigger gap between them and Manchester City?

Following the disappointment of the loss to Manchester United, Arsenal have won every game. They confirmed top spot in the Champions League, revived their form in the Premier League and have slid their way to the final of the EFL Cup. Things are looking up for the Gunners and they have an excellent chance to put more points on the board and temporarily extend the gap at the top of the Premiership. Sunderland held us to a 2-2 draw last time and will be looking for a similar result again.

Form

Sunderland sit 8th in the Premier League, five points off top four. They’ve had an incredible season that they never would’ve dreamed of having. They’ve got a pretty decent record over their last five fixtures, losing just twice and winning twice. They’ve scored seven times and conceded eight, which isn’t a brilliant record it has to be said. They did perform quite impressively against Burnley, in their last league outing, beating them 3-0. But, that’s only the third time this season that Sunderland have scored three or more goals in a single game.

Goals are certainly still an issue for the Black Cats as they have the 2nd lowest goal tally in the top half of the table. In fact, across the entire division, only six teams have scored less. Half of those teams sit in the bottom three. Sunderland’s strong point is keeping goals out as they’ve conceded the third lowest amount in the whole league. Only Arsenal and Manchester City have allowed less goals in. But, of the 26 goals they’ve conceded, 17 have come away from home. That’s by no means one of the highest tallies, but that split between home and away tells a big story here. This is what I’ll now move into as Sunderland have the 4th worst away form out of the 20 sides competing. They’ve lost six times and drawn four, winning just twice. Furthermore, the worst statistic out of all of that is the fact they’ve only scored six goals on the road. That’s a terrible return, only Wolves have scored less.

When looking at xG, it reflects terribly on Regis Le Bris’ side. They’ve only created 22 xG, compared to Arsenal who have created 42.7 xG. That’s almost double, only Burnley have created less. The xGA is where things start to look a little more favourable for Sunderland. They’ve only conceded 33.5 xGA which is better than quite a few clubs at both ends of the table. But, when you put it all together, Sunderland should be sitting in 18th, 11 points worse off than what they are now. So, while they are doing well in the league, they will have to be cautious they’re not creating enough to sustain their league position.

Injuries

Regis Le Bris has an almost full squad available to him, but is missing probably the biggest cog in his system. Granit Xhaka has been ruled out of this fixture. The only other absentee will be Bertrand Traore.

For Arsenal they will definitely be missing Mikel Merino as he will be out until the end of the season. Bukayo Saka and Martin Odegaard are both doubts for the fixture, but Mikel Arteta insists they’re progressing well. Max Dowman is still a few weeks away.

Player to Watch: Enzo Le Fee

Without Granit Xhaka to provide a bit of quality on the ball, Le Fee will assume the role of the technician in a physical side. He’s a tricky customer that has the highest combined goals and assists tally in the squad, with seven. He’s also got the highest number of chances created in the squad, beating Xhaka’s numbers. He also leads the way for expected assists (xA), expected goals (xG), tackles per 90 and times possession has been won in the final third. While seemingly being the creative pulse in the team, he also leads the press.

Sunderland Predicted Lineup

Sunderland play with a back five in every single game, this has helped them find so much success defensively. There’s no reason to think they won’t show up to the Emirates with the exact same setup. They’re going to be extremely tough to break down. The wing backs won’t disappear up into the attack, they will sit in a disciplined back five and trust the others to create chances. They do have a couple of silky players in that starting XI, Enzo Le Fee being one of them and Chemsdine Talbi the other. They’ll be looking to those in transition. We know that Brian Brobbey can trouble us, so William Saliba and Gabriel need to be on him from the first minute.

Arsenal Predicted Lineup

We have a number of games approaching so rotation will be key. As mentioned earlier, Saka and Odegaard are progressing well, but they have a very small chance of making the squad for this game. Odegaard will likely be ready for Brentford and I reckon Saka will be available for the Wolves game that’s been moved to the 18th February. Jurrien Timber and Piero Hincapie both played the full 90 minutes against Chelsea, so I feel as though we could see Ben White and Riccardo Calafiori as the full back pairing. While I think it would be wise to slot Christian Norgaard in the midfield, I doubt Arteta will. With Saka absent, Noni Madueke will have to start on that right, but Gabriel Martinelli will likely replace him in the 2nd half. Then we have Kai Havertz and Gabriel Jesus as the central figures. Jesus didn’t play at all against Chelsea, so I can see him starting this one, if he does start then it’ll have to be Kai behind him as Arteta favours some sort of aerial presence at the top end of the pitch. Eberechi Eze will be waiting in the wings, alongside Viktor Gyokeres if needed. This starting XI is more than capable of winning this one.

Predicted Result: Arsenal 2-0 Sunderland

Despite the away form of Sunderland, they will sit as deep as they can. This has notoriously troubled Arsenal and they’ll have to get creative again. I’m not thinking that Sunderland will create many chances, but we’ll still have to be switched on. We need to try and get that early goal so they almost can’t sit as deep as they’d like. It won’t be an exciting game, it will be boring and we might only squeak by. The likelihood is that we score from a set piece again, but if that’s what we have to do then that’s what we have to do. Let’s get it!