Will Arsenal take advantage of their hard work in the first leg?

The Gunners returned to form in the Premier League after demolishing Leeds 4-0 at Elland Road. This was a welcome result due to previous encounters not quite going Arsenal’s way. In fact, this is their first win in three league fixtures. The victory came with a cherry on top as both Aston Villa and Manchester City dropped points this weekend. Mikel Arteta’s men sit at the top of the table now six points clear. But, attention must return to cup competitions as a place in the EFL Cup final is up for grabs. The first leg, against Chelsea, resulted in Arsenal winning 3-2. A good result on paper, but they’ll be disappointed they surrendered a two goal cushion on two occasions. With the return leg at the Emirates and a one goal advantage, can Arsenal book a place in the final?

Form

When we faced Chelsea they’d only just welcomed Liam Rosenior into the club. He was in the dugout for Chelsea’s battering of Charlton, in the FA Cup. However, his first real test came in the shape of Arsenal. The Gunners deservedly won the tie, but since that game, Chelsea haven’t lost. Furthermore, they’ve actually won every single game. They comfortably dispatched Brentford 2-0, played out a tense 1-0 win over Pafos, eased their way past Crystal Palace with a 3-1 win, staged a late comeback against Napoli to win 3-2 and then did the exact same thing Saturday night. West Ham went 2-0 up and were cruising, but Chelsea fought back to win 3-2. That’s five wins from five, scoring 12 times and conceding five. That’s a very good return for a new manager in a new setup.

Chelsea sit 5th in the Premier League, 13 points behind Arsenal. With the title almost out of the question, Rosenior’s target will be to make top four. Currently, Manchester United hold fourth and are looking good for it. But, Liverpool are still in with a shout and Aston Villa could get dragged into it. Clearly Rosenior has instilled a winning edge into the side, but it hasn’t been without its hiccups, needing late winners against Napoli and West Ham. If we’re being honest, the teams that Rosenior has beat since joining have been on the easier side. Charlton (a), Brentford (h), Pafos (h), Crystal Palace (a), Napoli (a) and West Ham (h). Any new manager would lick their lips at that run of games. You do have to beat what’s in front of you and Enzo Maresca was struggling to do that towards the end.

For Rosenior, he’s going to need to break the streak. Chelsea haven’t beaten Arsenal since the 22nd August 2021, that’s almost five years without triumph. Admittedly there has been some draws in there, but a draw won’t be enough for Chelsea this time.

Injuries

The availability for Chelsea is far, far better than what it was in the first leg. The West London side were missing Reece James, Moises Caicedo, Cole Palmer and Malo Gusto. This time, all four are available. Jamie Gittens is a doubt, but; Levi Colwill, Tosin Adarabarioyo, Dario Essugo and Romeo Lavia will definitely miss the game. Aside from any late developments, all of Chelsea’s big hitters are available.

Arsenal are also blessed with a 95% complete squad. The unfortunate news is that Mikel Merino has been ruled out for the season with a suspected broken bone in his foot. We’re also aware that Bukayo Saka was removed from the starting lineup against Leeds. Mikel Arteta has downplayed how serious it is, but is alluding to him not being available for this tie. Of course Arsenal have plenty of strength in depth to pull through.

Player to Watch: Estevao

I can pick from a plethora of Chelsea players to watch. Joao Pedro has picked up form, Enzo Fernandez is always dangerous, Alejandro Garnacho scored twice against us last time and it seems like Cole Palmer will feature. However, I’m going with Estevao. The Brazilian gave Jurrien Timber nightmares last time out, he was comfortably Chelsea’s best player. Whoever we stick at left back will need to be smart, they can’t go running off and leaving Estevao in space. Keep him tightly marked and restrict him.

Chelsea Predicted Lineup

Rosenior has already suggested that Chelsea will go full strength as he feels like winning this tie will give his side a huge mentality shift. They’ll enter a final and potentially win a trophy in his first few months. I believe the team above is Chelsea’s strongest side on paper. The only question mark would be who slots in alongside Wesley Fofana, I assumed it’ll be Trevor Chalobah. This is what we should expect to see and of course they looked good, but they’ll be facing a side who have only lost once at home all season, in any competition. It’s a hell of a task, but certainly not impossible.

Arsenal Predicted Lineup

Arsenal need to think about rotation, but they need to keep it as strong as they can. Cleary depth is not an issue for the Gunners, but they can’t be thinking that the one goal advantage automatically means they’re through. I don’t mind a draw, but we can’t afford to lose. It’s gutting to learn of Merino’s injury, but with Havertz back, it’s a like-for-like swap. Saka is the other player to sweat on, but Madueke will relish a chance to inflict pain on his former side. This is a solid team on paper that has rotation in mind. If we end up struggling we have; Trossard, Gyokeres, Odegaard and Havertz to select from if we need to switch things up.

Predicted Result: Arsenal 2-1 Chelsea

Chelsea will play at a high intensity and will be at our throats for most of the game. Our last couple of home games haven’t been very positive, so it’s now a chance to put things right. Chelsea need to hunt for a goal, they can’t sit back and play deep. I feel like this will create some gaps that can be exploited and hopefully punished if we have our shooting boots on again. I do think Chelsea will score, but I think Arsenal will win overall.