Will it be a repeat or will Arsenal get a result?

It feels like it’s been a long time since Arsenal capitulated against Aston Villa. Arsenal have had plenty of time to put that result behind them, but it will still form a part of their memory bank that they won’t be able to erase. To be honest, it might be for the best as they can use that anger and frustration to turn it into something positive. Arsenal still remain top of the league after their narrow victory over Brighton, but will need to keep momentum going if they want to keep Manchester City at arms length.

Form

Aston Villa have been in scintillating form. Probably the most inform team across Europe since November. They’ve won an incredible 12 games on the bounce and don’t necessarily look like slowing down. They managed to overturn a 1-0 deficit against Chelsea at the weekend, Ollie Watkins the hero in that tie with two 2nd half goals. This was played at Stamford Bridge as well. The last time Villa lost a game was way back on the 1st November, a 2-0 defeat away to Liverpool. If you look further back, before the Liverpool game, they’d actually only lost once between the 13th September and 26th October. That was against Go Ahead Eagles in the Europa League. Essentially the form has been consistent since the 13th September. The only factor that is a minuscule thorn in their side is that their xG puts them 16th in the table. The idea of xG, in this format, is that it takes your expected goals and combines it with your expected goals against. Villa’s xG for is 19.9, xG against is 25.4. For comparison, Arsenal’s xG for is 32.4 and our xG against is 11. It roughly indicates how many goals we should’ve scored and how many we should’ve conceded. What’s interesting for Villa is that, according the underlying statistics, they should be down in 16th. They should only be sitting on 20 points.

A typical Villa supporter won’t care about xG, their team is getting wins and that’s the important aspect. I do agree, but they usually say that statistics will catch up to you eventually. This element of the game suggests that Villa are scoring from improbable areas, but preventing probable goals. Two things could happen, the statistics will catch up to Villa and they’ll fall away from a title race, or they’ll improve their creativity and restrict good chances at the other end. What we do know for sure is that Unai Emery gets the best out of his players whenever they step on to a pitch. They work for him and he has the tactical nous to give other teams a hard time. The results prove that.

Injuries/absences

When Arsenal travelled to Villa Park, Emery had pretty much a full roster to choose from. Only Ross Barkley and Tyrone Mings were absent. For Arsenal, they were missing William Saliba, Gabriel, Kai Havertz and Cristhian Mosquera. The Gunners were very much in the midst of a defensive injury crisis.

What will be good news for Arsenal, this time around, is that Emery will be missing a few key players. Matty Cash and Boubacar Kamara are both suspended for this tie. Evann Guessand is away on international duty. Barkley and Mings are still unavailable. Pau Torres and Harvey Elliot are also both doubts. This leaves the Villains quite stretched in terms of who they can turn to. Arsenal have both Saliba and Gabriel back for this tie. Havertz is reportedly in the squad and Ben White is facing a late fitness test. Jurrien Timber and Riccardo Calafiori are unknown, but the former is likely to be in the squad. Options are increasing for the Gunners.

Villa Predicted Lineup

Aston Villa typically sit in a 4-4-2, but not in the traditional sense. Emery likes to sit with two rows of four and use the front two as the outlets. Morgan Rogers will tend to sit behind Watkins and float wherever he needs to go. John McGinn and Emiliano Buendia will sit wide of the middle two when in possession, but will tuck in when defending. Youri Tielemans is the one that will control possession for Villa, everything will go through him. Amadou Onana is the legs that get up and down the pitch. Ian Maatsen and Lamare Bogarde will get forward at any opportunity which will see McGinn and Buendia operate a bit more centrally at times. Villa aren’t a ‘quick’ team, so they rely more on using technical ability. They’ll crowd the midfield and look to transition when Arsenal try and play through the middle.

Arsenal Predicted Lineup

Arsenal will have to try and capitalise on the fact that Emery will be without a couple of his starters. Villa hasn’t had to change personnel much, so it’ll be a chance for Arsenal to pounce. The Gunners will also have the comfort of a more settled defence, if Timber is fit. Piero Hincapie can fill in for Calafiori if he is to be absent. We need to play quick and get round the side of them as the midfield will be congested. I think if the emotion of the game is removed and we capitalise on our chances then we can win.

Predicted Result: Arsenal 2-0 Aston Villa

I’m putting my neck out here. Villa’s form is scary and clearly Emery is a manager that can tweak tactics to devastating effect. However, I think home crowd and a settled defence will help us over the line. We’ve shown we can create chances, we just need to finish them. The mental victory of winning this tie will be enormous. It puts pressure on City to get a result against Sunderland, away. They then head into a home fixture against Chelsea, whereas we travel to a depleted Bournemouth side. Let’s do this!