Arsenal squeaked by against Sporting Lisbon. The late goal from Kai Havertz, in Portugal, was enough to send the Gunners into the Champions League semi finals. The result was a draw at the Emirates, but that was technically the minimum requirement. It would’ve been nice to see them completely blow Sporting away, but I suppose the performance was marginally better than what we have seen. However, they’re going to have to dig much deeper when they face Manchester City. Having already lost to the Citizens in the last month, the ball is firmly in City’s court. However, the minimum requirement is once again a draw.

Form

City have been an enigma this season. They’ve had brilliant moments and epic runs, but they’d consider this one of their worst seasons in recent memory. They might sit six points behind Arsenal, but they do have a game in hand at their disposal. In addition to that, this fixture. If all go in City’s favour then they’ll end up level on points. That gives some context to the magnitude of this tie. The Citizens have scored 63 goals in the Premier League, which is the highest. They’ve conceded 28 which is the second lowest. They’ve won 19 of their 31 fixtures so far, drawing seven and losing five. That seems like a good record, but not amazing. However, what makes feel so fearful is that they haven’t lost a league match since January 17th. That’s nine games without defeat, winning six of them.

Outside of the Premier League has been a mixed bag. They won the first trophy available, at Arsenal’s expense. The EFL Cup could end up making City a treble winning side. The FA Cup has seen them reach the semi finals, hammering Liverpool 4-0 in the quarter finals. They’ll now face Southampton for a spot in the final. However, Europe hasn’t been so conquering for Pep Guardiola’s side. They scraped into the top 8, by finishing 8th. It meant they were able to avoid the knockout qualification round, but they were dumped out by Real Madrid in the next round anyway. 5-1, they lost on aggregate. It was a humbling experience, but it seems to have knocked them up a gear. Since that defeat to Real Madrid, City have won every fixture. They’ve beaten Arsenal, Liverpool and Chelsea. Scoring nine goals in the process and conceding zero. They’ll be especially happy to have beaten Chelsea as they halted a two game spell without victory. West Ham and Nottingham Forest both held Pep’s side to a draw.

In terms of xG, City have created 57.6. That’s the second highest in the division, behind Chelsea. At the other end of the pitch, they’ve allowed 34.2 xGA. That’s the second lowest, as Arsenal have a better record in that sense. If we combine the two together, City are exactly where they’re meant to be. However, they should be sitting on just 59 points, five less than their current total.

Absences

City have a couple of absences, but nothing that should overly concern them. Josko Gvardiol, John Stones and Ruben Dias will all miss the tie. Despite Pep suggesting that Nico O’Reilly will be fine, there’s a quiet feeling that he might miss the game.

Player to Watch: Antoine Semenyo

Take your pick. Literally any City player could cause us big issues. Erling Haaland feels too obvious and I covered Rayan Cherki before. Semenyo will be desperate to move the needle in City’s favour since his arrival in January. He’ll want to prove to everyone at the club that the investment was worth it. He’s certainly chipped in with a few moments already. Across the entire season he’s featured 40 times, 21 for Bournemouth and 19 for City. He’s notched 18 goals and 6 assists, combining for 24 G/A in 40 games. That’s an incredible return, especially as 11 of those have come while playing for Man City. He’s averaged a match rating of 7.23 since his arrival. In addition to this, he’s consumed the most minutes in the Premier League out of any City player. He’s top three in all these categories also; goals per 90, xG, xG per 90, expected goals on target, shots on target per 90, shots per 90 and successful dribbles per 90. I simply fear that our hesitation in buying him in January, or even last summer, will come back to haunt us in the worst way.

Manchester City Predicted Lineup

I think this is the blueprint for Pep’s success of late. It felt as though he had to choose between using wingers or using a creative trio. Now, Semenyo lingers up with Haaland creating a two-pronged attack. Jeremy Doku provides width still, meanwhile Cherki and Bernardo Silva spend the match just looking to cut open the opposition. They’ll press as a five man unit, leaving Rodri sitting and sweeping. Matheus Nunes and O’Reilly will push up on the wingers. Abdoukodir Khusanov and Marc Guehi will squeeze the life out of any striker. They’re aggressive, quick and good with the ball at their feet. They’ve had a week off and will feel refreshed, which will be one of my biggest concerns. In the EFL Cup final they stood off and allowed Arsenal to make their own mistakes. But, they could easily turn up the dial and begin pressing with force. The Gunners have shown they’re not comfortable playing through a team.

Arsenal Predicted Lineup

We’ll have David Raya between the sticks again and City will be well aware of his excellent distribution. They were able to sit off Kepa Arrizabalaga due to his deficiencies in distribution. I’d like to see Cristian Mosquera again as I think we need his defensive prowess. Ben White is okay, but he’s proven to be a bit of a liability at defending the back post zone. I think even if Jurrien Timber is fit, he won’t start. Same goes for Riccardo Calafiori. The midfield duo will always be Declan Rice and Martin Zubimendi, however, I’d like Rice deployed into the ‘6’ role ahead of Zubimendi. It seems like Martin Odegaard will be fit and I think he should start in that 8/10 role. For all his faults, he’s excellent at recycling possession. I wouldn’t rush Noni Madueke back in for this one and I’d actually prefer to see Gabriel Martinelli out there. His ability to track back is the best in the team and that could see O’Reilly’s influence halted. We need to fit Eberechi Eze in the side, without fail. He’s our spark and he won’t be afraid of the challenge. Finally, Kai Havertz to lead the line. We need someone comfortable to drop in and raise the technical floor of the team. Viktor Gyokeres doesn’t have the same finesse. It’ll mean that we feel a little light on a counter attack, but the extra man in midfield will give City second thoughts about using a five-man press.

Predicted Result: City 2-0 Arsenal

If City can score they’ll win. As much as I like to remain positive, I can’t really see where Arsenal will get their goals from. We’re not even dangerous from set pieces anymore. The way they squeezed the life out of us in the EFL Cup final, it’s mentally scarred me. They didn’t even need to get out of second gear. Knowing Pep, he’ll have tweaked his tactics slightly and it’ll catch Arteta out. My money is on a Semenyo dagger in the second half when it feels like we might get something. We’ll then try and grab an equaliser and they’ll hit us on the counter with Haaland wrapping up three points. But, football is a funny game and a few things could fall in Arsenal’s favour. Let’s get it!