It feels like an eternity since Arsenal last kicked a football, but that’s maybe because I’ve tried to mentally repress what happened in the EFL Cup final. The 2-0 defeat certainly left a sour taste in my mouth, especially after so much positivity in the fixtures leading up to it. The performance was a disgrace and it was more of a case that we beat ourselves as Manchester City weren’t overwhelmingly impressive. However, another cup competition awaits our platoon this Saturday. But, with injuries and fatigue ripping through the squad, let’s see if Southampton can capitalise.

Form

Southampton sit 6th in the Championship. They’re just about in the play off zone, but have Wrexham and Derby County snapping at their heels. Wrexham are level on points with the Saints, whereas Derby are three behind. Southampton have won four of their last five league games, drawing the other. They were even able to beat Coventry City away, who are top of the Championship by nine points. The Hampshire side haven’t actually lost a game, in any competition, since January 17th. That’s an enormous 14 games without a loss. The fact they won 11 of those 14 games proves that the form isn’t just a fluke, but actually incredible consistency.

Southampton’s route to this stage of the FA Cup started with an away trip to Doncaster. The Saints won 3-2. Following that was a home fixture to Leicester, which Tonda Eckert’s side won 2-1. They were then confronted with a challenging away tie to Fulham. The Cottagers are an extremely competent Premier League side, but were caught out and managed to lose 1-0 after a 90th minute penalty. So, the Championship side have already beaten a top tier team. Southampton do actually have a decent record against Arsenal, although they lost their last two games against the Gunners. Although, the last time these two sides met in the FA Cup, Southampton actually won. It was 1-0 victory at St Mary’s, back in January 2021. Yes it’s been a few years since that point, but that was a Mikel Arteta side and he’ll know from that experience what will happen if you don’t concentrate.

If we take a look at xG, Southampton have generated 64.4, which is the third best in the division. They’re just 0.1 xG behind Ipswich in second. If we look at xGA, it reads a little worse. 49.2 xGA means that 13 of the 24 teams have less xGA than the Saints. This shows that they concede quite a lot of chances, but are usually able to cover up for it by generating so much at the other end. According to the xG, Southampton should be 5th in the league, but with the same amount of points, 63.

Injuries/Absences

Southampton will be missing a couple of their regulars, with a few more in doubt. Flynn Downes, Kuryu Matsuki, Mads Roerslev Rasmussen and Welington will miss this fixture through suspension or injury. The doubts are Alex McCarthy, Jay Robinson and Leo Scienza.

For Arsenal it’s literally anyone’s guess who will be available and who won’t be. Mikel Merino, Eberechi Eze and Noni Madueke seem to be certain absences. Then we have Martin Odegaard, Jurrien Timber, Gabriel, Piero Hincapie, Declan Rice, Bukayo Saka, William Saliba, Leandro Trossard and Martin Zubimendi who are all doubts. Do I fully believe that all these players will miss out? No, not a chance, but we can be sure some of the doubts won’t make it.

Player to Watch: Finn Azaz

Finn is an all action midfielder that can do the dirty work, but also provide a real threat at the other end. He predominantly features in the attacking midfield role, but has been seen to play further back in central midfield and even further forward as a striker. In addition to this, he can play in left or right midfield. He’s every managers dream. He’s recored 10 goals and 7 assists for club and country. That’s 17 G/A in 45 matches, which is really good.

The Irish midfielder performs to a consistent level every week, coming in with a 7.25 average match rating. He has the second most goals and second most assists throughout the whole squad. The combination of the two places him the highest out of everyone. He’s played the third most minutes, meaning that he’s crucial to this Southampton side. He only leads two other categories, expected assists and times possession has been won in the final third. But, he places in the top three for all these other categories; goals per 90, expected goals, expected goals on target, big chances created, chances created, expected assists per 90 and successful dribbles per 90. It’s clear to see that he’s certainly one to watch and that everything will likely go through him. If we can eliminate his threat, we’ll likely cut off the supply to the forwards.

What’s interesting to note is that Adam Armstrong still leads some of these categories, despite leaving for Wolves in the January transfer window. Seemingly a big loss, that hasn’t quite been replaced.

Southampton Predicted Lineup

It’s quite hard to predict what Southampton will do as they’re definitely two of their main stars short, with one more a doubt. Flynn Downes is suspended and he’s the main cog in the heart of the midfield. Kuryu Matsuki is also suspended and he would’ve likely taken the right wing role. There’s a doubt over the fitness of Leo Scienza who has often been deployed wide left. This is the formation they used when they beat Fulham, so it’s likely they’ll go for the same here. Emphasis on extra defensive cover will likely be the way forward, but they have quality going forward to hurt us in transition.

Arsenal Predicted Lineup

A predicted lineup for Arsenal feels impossible right now. Even with Arteta’s press conference, it’ll likely be vague answers. Two players weren’t involved in the international break at all, playing or injured. Kepa Arrizabalaga and Gabriel Jesus, meaning that those two will likely start. Timber is still 50/50, whereas White featured for a couple of half games over the last two weeks. Cristian Mosquera survived the international break and featured for a portion of Spain’s games. I don’t like the idea of Riccardo Calafiori starting, especially after playing 120 minutes on Tuesday. However, Gabriel and Saliba are both doubts. The only alternative would be Marli Salmon or Jaden Dixon. Myles Lewis-Skelly should also be in contention to start given his excellent performances for England U21’s. Christian Norgaard will probably start as he’s fit and only played for around 20 minutes in Denmark’s last game. Zubimendi and Rice are both doubts. This could force Mikel Arteta in to starting Martin Odegaard, if he’s fit. Bukayo Saka and Noni Madueke are both doubts, with Madueke almost certainly absent. This paves the way for a start for Max Dowman, a real opportunity to showcase his talent. Kai Havertz is another that survived the international break and has stated himself that he’s ready to play 90 minutes again. Gabriel Martinelli was used sparingly by the Brazilian national team, but would’ve arrived back late from duty. As stated earlier, Jesus has had two weeks off and not due to injury. It would make total sense for him to lead the line. It’ll give Viktor Gyokeres some time to reset for Sporting Lisbon and Bournemouth.

Predicted Result: Southampton 1-0 Arsenal

I’m never normally sceptical heading into a fixture, but I feel with all the furore around our international break it could end up being a disastrous evening. Despite a slightly weakened Saints side, the home advantage could play into their hands. There’s a chance we have half our squad out, and will be left with a barebones squad with some that have played a fair share of minutes over the break. It has the feeling of one of those games where we can’t really get a foothold and the home side grab a goal through hard work. I hope I’m proved wrong, but I don’t think Arteta would be THAT upset if we get knocked out. He knows his squad is going through it and would likely accept removing a competition from the schedule. Having said that, Arteta is a perfectionist and would never accept a loss, it’s just whether his players can get him through it.