The Gunners have been picking up wins with increasing regularity. They had four on the spin until they met Bayer Leverkusen in the week. Arsenal left with a 1-1 draw and with work to do in the second leg of the Champions League round of 16. On the surface, Arsenal are unbeaten since the defeat to Manchester United in January, but dig a little deeper and it’s worrying. The performances need to improve and they have a chance to do that against Everton. Let’s see what Everton can offer here.

Form

Everton sit 8th in the league and they’re very deserving of that spot. They’re one point behind Brentford in 7th, which is the traditional threshold for European football. They’re also just five points behind Liverpool. They’ve won 12 of the 29 matches played, drawing 7 and losing 10. They’ve won three of their last five league games, scoring eight and conceding six. The thing is with Everton is that they won’t score loads of goals, but they also won’t concede many either. No team in the top 10 has scored less than Everton with 34, on the flip side, they’ve conceded just 33 which is the third best total in the division. Compact is the best way to describe this David Moyes side.

Everton have been picking up their points away from home. They’ve been sensational on the road, having not lost since December 13th. That makes it six games unbeaten. Within those six games, they’ve won four of them. So, they’re not just turning up to grab a point, they’re taking all three. Home form is what Everton are struggling to deal with, but a new stadium can have that effect. If they can master the Hill-Dickinson Stadium then they have a real chance of snatching European football away from Brentford.

Let’s take a look at xG. When Aston Villa went through that incredible unbeaten streak, the xG they were creating was terrible. But, it didn’t seem to matter as they were winning. Fast forward and now they’re struggling. My point is that poor performance on the xG charts will catch up to a team sooner or later, that’s relevant here because Everton have a pretty poor record. They’ve created just 34.9 xG which is only better than five other teams. xGA is pretty decent, but nothing to get excited about. 41.4 xGA is about right for their position in the table. Combine these two figures and the Toffee’s should be sitting 13th in the table, five places lower than they actually are. They should also only have 35 points which is eight lower than their current tally.

Injuries

David Moyes won’t have too much of selection headache here as a majority of his squad are available. Seamus Coleman, Charly Alcarez and Jack Grealish will definitely miss this fixture. Grealish being the biggest miss out of them all.

Player to Watch: Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall

An obvious choice might be Iliman Ndiaye due to his electric dribbling qualities, but Dewsbury-Hall is the one that pulls the strings. He’s contributed to 9 goals/assists in 22 league matches, which is the highest combination in the entire Everton side. He’s actually the club’s joint top scorer. He scored in his last match against Burnley, which was a 2-0 win. He grabbed an assist against Newcastle in the fixture before that. For a team that doesn’t score many, Dewsbury-Hall has contributed to nine of the 34 goals, that’s 26% of the total. He has the third highest average match rating with 7.26. He also features in the top three for these following categories; goals per 90, big chances created, chances created, expected assists, expected assists per 90 and successful dribbles per 90. It does just feel like if we can’t keep Dewsbury-Hall quiet then he’ll bring his whole team into the game. If we can eliminate his threat then players like Ndiaye will have to go it alone.

Everton Predicted Lineup

Despite Everton’s excellent defensive record, they actually tend not to sit in a deep low block. What they instead do is compact the middle of the pitch and force teams to cross the ball into the box. James Tarkowski and Michael Keane are two of the best around for winning aerial duels. It’s what they live to do, with the addition of Jake O’Brien who adds an enormous amount of height. They’re not just physically imposing, as a team, but also quite technically gifted. James Garner, Dewsbury-Hall, Dwight McNeil and Ndiaye are all gifted with the ball at their feet. If Arsenal are caught in transition, Everton do have the quality to grab a goal. The Gunners won’t be able to sleep walk to another victory, they need to switch on from the off.

Arsenal Predicted Lineup

There needs to be a bit of rotation here. It was flat against Leverkusen and Brighton, so we can’t go out with the same setup and expect a better performance. With that being said, I don’t think the quality will drop if Christian Norgaard, Ben White and Riccardo Calafiori come into the side. Martin Odegaard and Leandro Trossard look set to miss this clash, so I’d put Eberechi Eze out wide and bring Kai Havertz into the role behind Viktor Gyokeres. I feel like the team above have more maverick qualities, capable of the unexpected, not just physical powerhouses. I’m giving Bukayo Saka the benefit of the doubt that Leverkusen was a one off, but his inclusion here correlates with the idea that Noni Madueke will start the second leg against the German side.

Predicted Result: Arsenal 1-0 Everton

Everton haven’t played a match since Tuesday 3rd March. That’s almost two weeks of rest and recovery. The Gunners have played three games in that span. All of them being gruelling away fixtures, even the one against Mansfield Town wasn’t easy. Having just returned from Germany, the legs will be tired, but the squad has depth and some players have hardly played in the last few games. Mikel Arteta needs to trust his squad, if he does then we’ll likely win. However, Everton will be extremely hard to break down and, on current form, I don’t think we will until late on. It’ll take a huge second half effort to force one goal to go in. That’s how I see it panning out. The win is essential, as it takes us one closer to the dream. Let’s get it!