The Gunners have made it four wins in a row following the victory over Mansfield Town over the weekend. It certainly wasn’t easy, but we completed the job. With three Premier League victories under our belts and an FA Cup 5th round success, the return of the Champions League fills me with optimism. Bayer Leverkusen stand in our way, so let’s see what they have to offer us.

Form

Leverkusen sit 6th in the Bundesliga. They’re nine points ahead of 7th, which means they’ve effectively confirmed some sort of European football for next season. They sit three points outside of the top four, so Champions League football is still well on the cards. The German side have a good return in terms of goals scored, notching 48. Only four sides have scored more. They’ve also conceded just 32 goals, only two teams have allowed in less. So, they’re certainly effective at both ends. In the Champions League they finished 16th. They won three, drew three and lost two. The two teams they lost to were PSG and Olympiacos, but they got their revenge over the Greek side by knocking them out in the qualifier. They have also already played two English sides this season, drawing 2-2 with Newcastle in December and actually beating Manchester City at the Etihad back in November, 2-0 the score.

Bayer have had a pretty good time of it recently. Since January 24th, they’ve lost just one match in all competitions, a 1-0 loss away to Union Berlin. In the 12 games played since January 24th, they’ve won seven and drawn four. However, it’s just one win in five for Leverkusen in all competitions. There’s perhaps a small wobble, but they won’t be too worried. In the Bundesliga alone, they’ve knocked in nine goals in their last five matches and conceded five. Respectable numbers.

Let’s take a look at the xG. The home side have created 42.2 xG, which is a good return as only four sides have created more. They’ve conceded 29.6 xGA which is the third lowest in the league. In total, they should be sitting third, three spots better off than they currently are. However, they should have accumulated 43 points, which is one point less than they’ve currently got.

Injuries

Leverkusen have a few injuries knocking around the club right now, but nothing drastic. Mark Flekken, Loic Bade, Nathan Tella, Eliesse Ben Seghir, Arthur and Lucas Vazquez will all miss this fixture.

It’s hard to work out who won’t be available for the Gunners. Mikel Merino is definitely out. Martin Odegaard will miss this tie as well. Ben White has reportedly travelled as has Riccardo Calafiori and Leandro Trossard, however, White might not make the final team sheet. William Saliba, Gabriel and Declan Rice should all be available.

Player to Watch: Alejandro Grimaldo

No other player in Europe has scored more direct free kicks than Grimaldo, who has five. Needless to say his set pieces will be dangerous. Leverkusen normally operate in a 3-4-2-1 and Grimaldo sits on the left of that. He’ll bomb up and down the left wing, but will be more interested in getting forward than anything else. He’s consistently the best player in the side with an average match rating of 7.62. Despite having a role that closely resembles a left wing back, he’s still notched 11 goals/assists in 21 Bundesliga matches. In fact, across all club competitions he’s played 35 times. Within that he’s grabbed 12 goals and provided 9 assists. 21 goals/assists across 35 matches is an incredible contribution. This will mean that Jurrien Timber and Bukayo Saka will have their hands full for the night. In terms of statistical analysis, he features in the top three for a variety of categories; expected goals (xG), expected goals on target (xGOT), big chances created, chances created, expected assists (xA) and xA per 90. He’s the big creator for the German side and he’s my one to watch.

Bayer Leverkusen Predicted Lineup

Kasper Hjulmand deploys a back three with a two man midfield sitting in front of that. Both are very technical players that will be play long, direct balls to the wing backs and further. Grimaldo, as mentioned above, will be the dominant creator in the final third and will look to whip in crosses at any given chance. Martin Terrier and Ibrahim Maza will attempt to box crash and give Martin Zubimendi and Declan Rice something to think about. Christian Kofane or Patrick Schick will try and provide the finishing touch.

Arsenal Predicted Lineup

My predicted lineup has one eye on the Everton game on Saturday. We can go full strength here and get a bigger result to take back to the Emirates, but we could also go full strength and lose. The team above is more than good enough to beat Leverkusen. Yes there’s no Bukayo Saka here, but he can be a second half substitute. Noni Madueke has been better in the Champions League this season and I think he genuinely stretches a game better than most others on the team. Kai Havertz against his former side, at least 45 minutes will do him good. It will be nice to see that link up with Viktor Gyokeres again. In order to create balance in attack, Eberechi Eze needs to start. Someone that can put his foot on the ball and brings others into play. The only other change is Myles Lewis-Skelly starting ahead of Piero Hincapie. Hincapie played more football than expected at the weekend and Lewis-Skelly hasn’t played for a while. He’s been our go to left back for the Champions League, so let’s give a him run out again. Save Hincapie for the battle against Iliman Ndiaye on Saturday.

Predicted Result: Leverkusen 0-2 Arsenal

Leverkusen will be much more dangerous than we’re probably expecting. They’re flushed with technically gifted players and Arsenal have notoriously struggled to deal with that style of player. However, the physical dominance that Arsenal have will play a huge part here. Not just from set pieces, but overall physical superiority. The Gunners have had a perfect Champions League so far and I can see that continuing here. Nothing flashy, but professional and efficient. Let’s get it!