Will Fabian Hurzeler provide another stumbling block for Arsenal?

Having only just recovered from the weekend, Arsenal are in action again. Chelsea proved to be a formidable opponent, but the Gunners made it two wins in a row. Either through luck or perseverance, it doesn’t matter, the three points left with Arsenal. What made it sweeter was that the two wins came over London rivals. The North London side have four away games remaining with two of them in London. Brighton away will be the 2nd to last time the Gunners will leave the capital before the close of the season. Let’s dig into what Brighton will offer.

Form

Brighton sit 11th in the league at the moment, but that could change depending on the results tonight (Tuesday 3rd). The Seagulls did start the season very well and were knocking around the top half of the table. However; December, January and February derailed the entire season. There’s still room to manoeuvre as the objective will be to try and get into Europe. It’s likely that 8th will get European football, but to be safe, 7th will be the desired finish. Brentford occupy that position and sit six points ahead of Brighton. It’s a good cushion for Brentford, but not an impossible task for Fabian Hurzeler to overcome.

As mentioned above, form over the last three months has been extremely disappointing. Between December 3rd and February 20th, Brighton have won only one league fixture. That’s one win in 13 games. It wasn’t all bad during that run as they drew six of them, but it still shows a lack of conviction. However, they have won their last two Premier League fixtures. It’ll come as a huge relief as it’s pretty much confirmed they won’t be partaking in a relegation battle. The East Sussex side beat Brentford 2-0 and were then able to dispatch Nottingham Forest with a 2-1 triumph. Despite the wins, Brighton haven’t exactly been in good scoring form as they only have five in their last five league matches. They’ve conceded four in the same period, which is actually better than Arsenal’s record. Defensively things are working out, but there’s work that needs to be done in attack.

I do always enjoy taking a look at xG as it reveals more about a side than just what you get with pure results. The xG table looks quite favourably on Brighton as they’re currently underperforming. According to the statistics, they should be sitting 9th, three points better off than they are currently. They’ve created 41.3 xG which is better than 10 other teams. The xGA is pretty good as well as they’ve conceded 38.6 xGA. That’s better than 10 other teams once again. It’s consistent and consistency earns results in the long run.

Injuries

Brighton are doing okay for injuries at the moment. Yasin Ayari is a doubt, but could still make the team. Adam Webster and Stefanos Tzimas are the only ones that are definitely out.

Arsenal have a small injury headache, but nothing to be alarmed about. Mikel Merino is out long term. Ben White has been confirmed as absent from this fixture. Kai Havertz and Martin Odegaard will be assessed prior to the match. Declan Rice and David Raya should be okay.

Player to Watch: Diego Gomez

Not a household name yet, but he’s certainly enjoying a breakthrough campaign for the Seagulls. He can play a variety of positions, but has recently slipped out to right midfield. This has seen him register a goal for two games in a row. His strike against Nottingham Forest was stunning, highly recommend watching it. He also was the one that scored against Arsenal back in December when we beat them 2-1 at the Emirates. He has five goals in total and no assists in the Premier League, but he has an additional five goals coming from the EFL Cup. Four of which came in one game. He also has one goal on the international stage. Despite his primary role being a defensive midfielder, he’s bagged 11 goals in all competitions for club and country. He also features in the top three for these statistics; goals per 90, xG per 90, expected goals (xG), expected goals on target (xGOT) and tackles per 90. He’s fundamentally one of Brighton’s leading dangers in front of goal. Certainly one to watch.

Brighton Predicted Lineup

It’s actually quite hard to predict what Hurzeler will do in terms of a lineup. He has quite a few options. Except from Carlos Baleba, this is the starting XI that won the last two league games. If it’s a winning formula then why change? I just think he might opt for Baleba’s physical traits over James Milner. He also has the option to start Yankuba Minteh and Georginio Rutter, two players that have caused Arsenal problems this year.

This is slightly different to what we have seen in the two wins over Spurs and Chelsea, but I think this will work. We know that a front three of Noni Madueke, Viktor Gyokeres and Gabriel Martinelli does not work in the league. However, I think Madueke deserves a run out and I’d slip Saka inside to facilitate the move. Leandro Trossard, despite his poor performance against Chelsea, is needed as the option to play between the lines. Declan Rice seems like he’ll be okay for this one, but I’d take out Martin Zubimendi and leave Christian Norgaard in. I’d like to see what Norgaard can do from the start and how he’ll partner Rice. As mentioned in a previous post, I’d like Riccardo Calafiori back in the side. Piero Hincapie has been good, but he’s not the maverick that the Italian is.

Predicted Result: Brighton 0-2 Arsenal

After reading some of the comments made by Hurzeler, in his pre-match press conference, I feel as though Brighton will come out with some bite. The Seagulls haven’t played well in the last few months, but two wins back-to-back will be refreshing. Having said that, I think some lessons have been learned after Brentford and Wolves. I think beating Spurs was helpful, but it was the win against Chelsea that solidified the confidence going forward. If we play fast and get some shots off, we’ll win. My frustration against Chelsea was the lack of shots. The players found space, but an extra touch would let them down. I think the boys will do it, let’s get it!