Arsenal desperately needed to beat Tottenham Hotspur last weekend. Not because of the rivalry, although that does help, but because so much is now riding on each and every game. Whether it’s Chelsea at home or West Ham away, every game is a must win. This is why beating Spurs was so crucial, it halted a streak of two draws on the bounce. Manchester City are within two points of Arsenal now, after beating Leeds United on Saturday. So, let’s take a look at our opponent to assess the issues that might arise.

Form

Chelsea sit 6th in the league table right now, that’s after Liverpool were able to beat West Ham yesterday. However, they’re three points outside of top four and six points adrift of third. So, they have everything to play for. Liam Rosenior has been the light at the end of the tunnel for Chelsea this season. Enzo Maresca started the campaign very well, but ultimately his team fell off a cliff. Rosenior took the reins and has steadily improved his sides league position, qualified them for the Champions League knockout stage and got them into the 5th round of the FA Cup. It’s been a successful appointment so far. The only blotch on his record is that 4-2 defeat to Arsenal across the two legs of the EFL Cup semi final. Outside of that, he’s undefeated. Of the 12 games he’s managed, in all competitions; he’s lost two, drawn two and won eight. However, the two draws mentioned above have come in the last two league fixtures. They gave up a 2-0 lead against Leeds to draw 2-2. Then Burnley rescued a point after Chelsea went 1-0 up, resulting in a 1-1 draw.

What you can say about Chelsea is that they are overpowered in attack. Despite holding 6th place in the league, the Blues have the joint-third most goals scored. Behind Manchester City and Arsenal. Chelsea have scored 12 goals in their last five league matches, conceding seven. They haven’t actually recorded a clean sheet, in the league, since January 17th when they beat Brentford 2-0.

Where Chelsea stand out the most is the xG they create. They’ve created the most with 52.3 xG. The next highest is Manchester City with 51.1 xG. They have an incredible knack of creating a plethora of chances. But, normally when you’re able to create so much, you often leave yourself a little exposed at the back. This is evident in the fact that they’ve conceded 37.4 xGA. For comparison, City have only conceded 31.8 xGA. I would compare them with Arsenal, but the Gunners are the anomaly with 19.2 xGA.

Injuries/Absences

Chelsea will be without a couple of key stars for this tie. Wesley Fofana is suspended for this one. Marc Cucurella, Estevao, Jamie Gittens, Filip Jorgensen, Levi Colwill and Dario Essugo will all miss this fixture through injury. Romeo Lavia is a doubt, but could make the squad. Clearly Fofana, Cucurella and Estevao will be a huge miss for Liam Rosenior. But, they will have Reece James, Cole Palmer and Moises Caicedo available for the first time against the Gunners.

Arsenal will just be missing Mikel Merino and Max Dowman as certainties. Kai Havertz has travelled with the squad and will likely make the final team sheet. Ben White is the only other doubt.

Player to Watch: Joao Pedro

Plenty to choose from in a stacked Chelsea squad, but Joao Pedro is the most inform out of them all. He’s given us trouble before and I’m certain he will again. He’s physical, skilful and unrelenting. Both William Saliba and Gabriel will have their hands full in this one. He has eight goals/assists in his last nine games. He’s scored for two league games in a row now. In total he’s got 15 g/a for the season, which is at the higher end of the scale. He’s also achieved a match average rating of 7.23, which is also quite high. Overall, he’s going to be dangerous and will have the confidence to score from any angle.

Chelsea Predicted Lineup

Without Fofana, Cucurella and Estevao this is likely how they’ll lineup. Liam Rosenior did come to the Emirates with a back five for the second leg of the EFL Cup semi final. However, this is a competition with different expectations and will require a different approach. I do think he’ll come with his traditional back four. Mamadou Sarr will likely get the nod ahead of Tosin Adarabioyo. Jorrel Hato normally deputises for Cucurella and Palmer will likely push out to the right to cover for Estevao. The only other approach might be to push Enzo Fernandez back into Andrey Santos’ role and then slip Palmer behind Pedro. This will vacate a space for Alejandro Garnacho to come in.

Arsenal Predicted Lineup

With the boys having a week off, it’ll likely be an unchanged side from what we saw against Spurs. It worked. Jurrien Timber and Martin Zubimendi have been afforded some rest, so hopefully we’ll see a bit more from them today. I hope Eberechi Eze retains his spot, despite Martin Odegaard’s return. The only change I could realistically see is Riccardo Calafiori getting a go over Piero Hincapie. Hincapie has been good recently, but Calafiori’s maverick qualities could come in handy here. It’ll give James more to think about. I think Leandro Trossard benefits from having Calafiori behind him. Whatever Mikel Arteta decides, it’s pretty much a full squad to choose from so there’s no excuses.

Predicted Result: Arsenal 2-1 Chelsea

It’s going to be tough. The days of beating Chelsea 5-0 were sweet, but they’re over. Chelsea are much more organised as a team and have much better individual quality. What we can hope for is a professional performance from Arsenal. Not frightened to go at Chelsea, who will have an untested back line. We can’t wait until the 97th minute to grab a winner and have just a handful shots in between. Chelsea were better than us at the Emirates, but that’s perhaps because we knew we had a small cushion. Take our chances and not let the concentration go if we do go a goal up.