Arsenal enjoyed a fantastic afternoon of football in the 4th round of the FA Cup, at the weekend. They beat Wigan 4-0 to advance to the 5th round, which we’ve just found out will be Mansfield away. However, the Premier League hasn’t been kind to Arsenal in the last few weeks. Two wins in their previous six matches means that this tie against Wolves is of extreme importance. If Arsenal are victorious then they’ll open up the point gap, with Manchester City, to 7 points. With that being said, let’s see how Wolves are getting on.

Form

It’s extremely hard to really speak positively about Wolves in any way. They sit 20th in the league and have effectively been relegated. They’re pretty much waiting for official confirmation at this point. They’ve got nine points, which is nine points behind Burnley and 15 behind West Ham. This means that they’re 18 points from safety. With 12 games left, that’s an almost impossible task. Wolves have lost 19 games this season, which is by far the worst in the league, the next worse is Burnley on 16. They’ve drawn six times and won just a single game. However, since the 30th December, they’ve picked up four draws and a win. Which makes up about 80% of their entire points tally for the season. They were on a three game losing streak, but managed to claim a draw against Nottingham Forest. However, the West Midlands side have only scored one goal in their last five league fixtures. In fairness, they haven’t lost by more than three goals since the 8th December, when they lost 4-1 to Manchester United. They’ve played United, Liverpool, Manchester City, Arsenal and Chelsea since. So, it’s not terrible despite the losses. Of course in the reverse fixture, Wolves frustrated Arsenal. The Gunners needed a last minute winner to win 2-1 after Wolves equalised late on. The North London side did not play well that night.

Wolves have scored the least amount of goals in the Premier League and by some distance. They’ve scored 16 goals, which is obviously less than a goal a game. They don’t have an official top scorer as five players have two goals each. But, the silver lining is that they’ve not conceded the most goals in the division. That accolade belongs to Burnley right now, even West Ham have conceded more.

In terms of xG, Wolves are not bottom. Sunderland and Burnley have a worse xG record. According to the statistics, Wolves should be sitting on 27 points. That’s a huge 18 point swing, no team in the division has a higher point swing than that. They’ve created 23.5 xG, which is the third lowest in the table. In terms of xGA they’ve only conceded 38.6. Three teams have a worse record than that. So, in reality, the underlying statistics show that Wolves aren’t as bad as they seem. Do they deserve relegation? Yes. But, it’s not as straight-forward as that.

Injuries

Wolves don’t have much issue in terms of personnel. The only two certain absences are Leon Chiwome and Hwang Hee-Chan. Toti Gomes is a doubt, but will face a late fitness test. Hwang is one of the joint top scorers, so he will be missed.

Arsenal have a few more injury problems to deal with. Mikel Merino and Kai Havertz will certainly miss out. Max Dowman is unlikely to make the squad, even if he is fit. Martin Odegaard, Riccardo Calafiori and Ben White will face late fitness tests.

Player to Watch: Mateus Mane

Despite all the doom and gloom surrounding the club this season, Mane has been a revelation since the turn of the year. He’s 18 years old and is an attacking midfielder. He’s brave on the ball and has a quick turn of pace. He’s been a shining beacon of hope and could cause Arsenal a lot of problems. The Gunners themselves even have Mane as an option for the summer. He’s one of the five top scorers at the club and is the joint highest for a combined goals/assists tally. He has 3 G/A in 15 matches. He’s the third highest rated on FotMob with a 6.70 match rating. He also leads the way in many other attacking statistics. Goals per 90, shots on target per 90, shots per 90 and successful dribbles per 90. He also features third in big chances created. For a team that has only scored 16 goals this season, his creative output is very respectable.

Wolves Predicted Lineup

Wolves have a couple of new additions, following the conclusion of the January transfer window. Adam Armstrong and Angel Gomes both have Premier League experience, Armstrong with more. They’re both talented and will add something different. However, they lost a number of players in the winter window too. Jorgen Strand Larsen joined Crystal Palace. Emmanuel Agbadou, John Arias, Fer Lopez, Marshall Munetsi and Ki-Jana Hoever all departed the club. The squad has become weaker, in reality. No matter who they’ve had in, Wolves will set up in a 352/3412. Essentially it’ll be a back five. I doubt they’ll go with two strikers, so it’ll be a toss up between Armstrong and Tolu. The technical level has raised since we played them in December, but it shouldn’t be enough to cause us too many issues.

Arsenal Predicted Lineup

If you check my last post you’ll see my explanation for each player, but essentially this is our strongest starting XI. It just has a couple of choices that I think Arsenal should go for. I want to see Bukayo Saka in that role floating behind the striker and across the midfield. He was excellent against Wigan. If he’s fit, I want to see what White can do against Premier League opposition. Giving Jurrien Timber a solid break for Spurs, who are next after Wolves. We can’t go into the match with the same setup as Brentford, even if Brentford are a superior side. If it was up to me, I would like to see Declan Rice in the ‘6’ role and have Eberechi Eze to the left of Saka. Play through the middle again. But, Arteta won’t deviate too much from that Martin Zubimendi and Rice midfield pairing. Let’s get it!