Will Arsenal show their title credentials or will they crumble under pressure?

Arsenal have certainly returned to winning ways since the defeat at home to Manchester United. It’s four wins in a row, with two coming in the league. The Gunners were able to ease their way past Sunderland with a 3-0 win. Manchester City maintained the six point gap, which had been temporarily extended to nine. Their late victory over Liverpool was a slight kick in the teeth, but we should only be focusing on us. Next up is a trip to the Gtech Community Stadium, to face Brentford.

Form

Brentford have been nothing short of phenomenal this season. No one, including me, really gave them much hope of anything. I didn’t think they’d face the drop, but certainly linger around that zone. They currently sit 7th in the league, level on points with Liverpool and five points behind Chelsea in 5th. The last five games have seen Brentford win three and lose two, a very respectable return. The previous 10 games, for the home side, is where things start to get very impressive. They sit 2nd in the league, just three points behind Arsenal. The Bee’s have won six, drawn two and lost two. In addition to this, they’ve scored 18 goals and conceded 10. Only Arsenal and Chelsea have scored across the last 10 games. In terms of the concession of goals, only Manchester City and Arsenal beat them. The reality is, Brentford are in the kind of form that’s better than one of the title challenging sides.

Brentford also have exceptional form at the Gtech Community Stadium. They’ve lost just two times on home soil, although that defeat was in their last game at home. Nottingham Forest beat them 2-0. Even with that defeat, they have the 6th best home form in the division. Liverpool, Chelsea, Newcastle and Tottenham all have worse records. The only conclusion that can be drawn from that information is that Brentford are just a good team. There’s no purple patch or luck, they’re grinding through games with a solid structure. They can be dangerous offensively and tight at the back.

The xG table puts them close to where they are now, there’s no big differential. They’re slightly over-performing the statistics, but not to any kind of worrying extent. For example, the xG table puts them two points worse off than they should be. The club sit on 40.2 xG created with only; Bournemouth, Manchester United, Arsenal, Manchester City and Chelsea creating more. In terms of xGA, they’ve allowed 35.6. This puts them right in the middle of the pack. For context, the Gunners have only allowed 16.6 xGA. Having said that, Arsenal are the anomaly when it comes to xGA.

Injuries/Absences

Brentford do have a relatively small squad, so when a player misses a game, it is felt. One of those players is Kevin Schade, who is suspended for this one. Reiss Nelson also won’t be able to feature due to Arsenal being the parent club. Elsewhere, Fabio Carvalho is out along with Josh Dasilva. The only other injured player is Antoni Milambo, who has been injured since October. The big miss for Brentford will be Schade, a huge part of their counter-attacking danger.

Arsenal will of course be without Mikel Merino. Max Dowman is still a little while away as well. Bukayo Saka is very unlikely to feature with Martin Odegaard also a doubt. Leandro Trossard limped off against Sunderland, it seems like it might just be cramp, but we’ll wait to see what Mikel Arteta says.

Player to Watch: Dango Ouattara

While Igor Thiago will often steal the headlines, as he should when he’s scoring 17 Premier League goals, but the team is a unit. Thiago won’t get those goals if his team don’t give him the resources to do it. There’s been a few outstanding players, but Ouattara has been the one that’s caught my eye. A special mention goes to Michael Kayode, who has been a revelation. With Schade out, Ouattara is the one that the counter-attacks will flood through. That ability to transition quickly is what Brentford have utilised extremely well this season. It’ll be no different against Arsenal who will expect to hold most of the possession and dominate large portions of the game. Dango poses the biggest threat in transition and the one that Arsenal will have to keep their eye on the most. The Burkina Faso international has three goals/assists in his last two games, so he’s a player in form. He has only got five goals and one assist for the season, but hasn’t been the most utilised player in the squad. What’s interesting is that he’s won four penalties this season, which is the highest in the division, for a single player. Brentford actually have the most penalties awarded with 8, the next highest is Chelsea with 7.

Brentford Predicted Lineup

Brentford set up in quite a similar way to us, but won’t quite follow the same tactics. Keith Andrews’ side thrive off fast, counter-attacking football. Kayode and Rico Henry are a big part of that as they will fly up the wings whenever there’s a sniff of an attack. The ball will likely filter through Dango first, his pace will create the separation, the rest will join. Igor Thiago will use his physicality to battle with Gabriel and William Saliba, attempting to win some space in the box. Jordan Henderson will also look to ping balls in behind the Arsenal defence who do sit high, so David Raya will have to be on red alert. He is normally very good at reading danger. Depth isn’t a strong point for Brentford, but we could see Mikkel Damsgaard at some point. Outside of that, the options are extremely limited. Kaye Furo and Romelle Donovan are both talented youngsters, but not ones you’d expect to make a huge difference. For the Middlesex side, the starting XI holds 95% of the danger that Arsenal will face.

Arsenal Predicted Lineup

With Odegaard and Trossard still doubts, this is how I would lineup. It’s full strength with what we have available, but I’d opt for Eberechi Eze over Gabriel Martinelli. The Brazilian has been good in recent weeks, but it’s when he’s come off the bench. His pace and intensity works against tiring legs. I also don’t like the idea of using two quick wingers who aren’t the best when it comes that added bit of football IQ. Trossard is immense because he works well in small quarters, whereas Madueke and Martinelli need space to operate. Something Brentford won’t give. I also like the idea of Kai Havertz and Viktor Gyokeres working off each other, it’s no coincidence that Gyokeres’ output has improved since Kai’s return. The both of them also add that physical presence. If they can’t produce the goods, then we can turn to the Brazilian flair of Gabriel Jesus and Martinelli. I would also argue putting someone like Christian Norgaard in ahead of Martin Zubimendi. Nobody knows Brentford as well as Norgaard, the former club captain. Everyone else picks themselves.

Predicted Result: Brentford 0-2 Arsenal

Of course this won’t be an easy game for Arsenal. Brentford are one of the most inform teams in the Premiership, even across all of Europe, over a 10 game spread. They’ve just gone to Newcastle and Aston Villa and beaten them both, two of the hardest stadiums to get points at. However, facing Leeds I was pessimistic and we walked away with a 4-0 win. We’ve been quite good at removing the emotion when we’ve played teams outside of the ‘big six’. I think Gyokeres has helped push us over the line against those smaller outfits. I’ll go with 2-0. I think we’ll create more than what we did against Sunderland, but I think we’ll struggle to put the chances away initially. In my head I’m seeing us hit them with both barrels in the second half and close the game off. Let’s get it!